Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 81509.665727 86076.652703 90644.583482 95553.007947 100674.772694 105858.208584 111497.266192
2025-03-16 73714.158357 80666.145275 87816.148884 95709.264655 104168.094768 112950.876990 122749.076041
2025-03-23 69137.439878 77795.512286 86895.378617 97151.690137 108368.368983 120241.251852 133737.347539
2025-03-30 65321.272650 75246.330204 85869.069879 98049.940785 111595.734703 126161.330118 142971.434067
2025-04-06 61717.354729 72591.522724 84418.539085 98186.995344 113722.599704 130656.607165 150456.524362
2025-04-13 58520.670453 70149.858178 82983.673600 98129.163094 115442.453055 134543.871451 157136.966875
2025-04-20 56578.683816 68984.529124 82854.689211 99422.298797 118579.989034 139941.827507 165464.053499
2025-04-27 54853.693213 67949.317652 82768.684079 100668.965068 121587.281430 145139.823903 173538.371063
2025-05-04 52956.537515 66603.229643 82225.609544 101297.373783 123808.360246 149386.904083 180494.422281
2025-05-11 50915.785961 64986.342300 81274.765335 101363.807274 125303.225762 152742.849422 186386.971736
2025-05-18 49159.950447 63630.418988 80560.146921 101642.519866 126992.387140 156286.606486 192478.893495
2025-05-25 47546.982568 62377.526167 79905.700600 101935.308846 128651.412829 159763.841588 198479.407300
2025-06-01 46585.160012 61902.757217 80181.629004 103355.173944 131684.993252 164916.034130 206545.770374
2025-06-08 44863.631342 60421.032474 79173.981266 103164.774531 132738.990634 167690.030976 211777.748492
2025-06-15 44066.171236 60065.340311 79525.164107 104621.689690 135788.292599 172865.325963 219920.027990
2025-06-22 43073.535024 59419.964914 79480.743242 105559.437177 138182.465425 177244.899689 227115.575568
2025-06-29 41767.584827 58324.946739 78829.809581 105701.561038 139564.131802 180375.934333 232791.783410
2025-07-06 40441.378768 57158.230130 78046.881292 105639.454328 140661.168700 183139.562500 238013.780198
2025-07-13 39830.187101 56902.812316 78406.633368 107012.022257 143550.415033 188117.526641 245984.498010
2025-07-20 39231.900819 56640.311121 78738.148524 108335.188884 146373.565794 193022.366475 253891.059804
2025-07-27 38383.965977 56015.721557 78575.490019 109002.098855 148351.648778 196873.887848 260502.561791
2025-08-03 37326.931923 55076.888965 77972.937492 109072.599164 149548.445213 199737.540603 265883.258116
2025-08-10 36410.787917 54301.209227 77559.968802 109368.373597 151019.256304 202940.563507 271697.901058